This past weekend’s taste of fall was a joyful peek at what’s to come — the 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a slightly cooler and drier September and October in Tampa.
Tampanians can expect warm temps with a mix of sunny rays and thunderstorms — and a chance of hurricanes, of course — from now until Saturday, Sept. 14, when the almanac predicts a shift to weather cooler than average for October. The almanac also reports a below average chance of rain during the fall.
Editor’s note: Hurricane season runs through Saturday, Nov. 30, so there’s a possibility we could have one any time this fall.
How accurate is that forecast? Using a formula developed in the late 1700s, the almanac claims to be accurate 80% of the time. A 2010 University of Illinois study showed it has ~50% overall accuracy, so let’s compare to the National Weather Service.
The NWS predicts a 50%-60% probability that weather will be hotter than average from September to November, so we may still need that sunscreen. As for precipitation, there’s a 40%-50% chance the same timeframe will have above average precipitation on the horizon.
The Farmer’s Almanac + NWS predictions may not quite line up, but we’ll keep our fingers crossed for cooler temps.
