TBAYtoday City Guide Live Banner

Presented By  

Winter 2023 forecast for Tampa Bay

Prepare for winter weather in Tampa Bay, FL with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

BL00C5VO3004355-R1-026 (1).JPEG

Make the most of the breezy weather with some outdoor biking, a stroll, or even hammocking.

Photo by TBAYtoday

Table of Contents

We know the question on your mind, TBAY — when’s it going to get cold?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in the Tampa Bay area for December, January, and February. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The first day of winter is Thursday, Dec. 21.


Take a peek at the new season’s predicted temperatures.


Think cool. This winter, Tampa Bay has equal chances of temperatures being higher or lower than normal. In other words, this one is hard to predict.


Expect slightly more precipitation. The Tampa Bay area has a 60-70% chance of seeing higher than average rainfall amounts this winter.


Drought conditions are expected to improve this season.


Cooler weather is here to stay, and we’re sighing with relief. Typically in Tampa, December’s temperatures fluctuate between 58.1° on cooler nights and an average high of 72°. This is the least sunny month of the year for the Cigar City, but the clear skies and cooler temps still make for excellent outdoor celebrations and activities weather.


This might be the time to pull out your wetsuit and pack a blanket for the beach. In January, the average high and low temps are between 67.8° + 53.4°. This is the coldest month of the year — for the ocean too. During January, the average ocean temperature is 64.8°, with it becoming less comfortable to take a dip once the temperature is below 69.8°. The first month of the year is also the the month with the lowest UV index — the average maximum is 4.


Tampa starts to defrost (metaphorically speaking) from an average high of 67.8° in January to a balmy 71.8° in February. But still expect to pack a light jacket for that date night — the month’s low-temperature averages about 56.7°. Pro tip: February marks the beginning of more sunny days as we approach spring.

City Guides are presented by Water Street Tampa.

Check out our other Guides
Prepare for spring weather in Tampa + the Burg with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
This guide will help you give back to the Tampa Bay area, including outdoor spots, veteran assistance, and mental health aid.
We break down literary contributions by some of Tampa Bay authors past and present.
Tampa Bay, FL has centuries of history. In this guide, we’re diving into some of the area’s oldest streets and how they got their names.
TBAY restaurants, cafes, and diners serving up all the eggs, pancakes, mimosas, and other brunch favorites you want to eat.
Tell us you’re from Tampa Bay without telling us you’re from Tampa Bay.
We’re highlighting the best kid-friendly activities that Tampa and St. Pete have to offer — complete with art classes, animal encounters, and outdoor fun.
It’s 5 o’clock somewhere.
Dining in Tampa and St. Pete is always a fresh experience with new restaurants popping up all the time — and more on the way.
We break down where to eat, chow down, and how to make the best use of this beloved airport.
TBAYtoday Phone
Good news for Tampa Bay.
Get the best local news & events sent to your inbox each morning, for free.