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Fall 2023 weather trends

Prepare for fall weather in the Tampa Bay area with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

A small child standing in front of a pumpkin display.

Fall is on the way, weather you like it or not.

We know the question on your mind, Tampa Bay residents — when’s it going to get cool?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The first day of fall is on Saturday, Sept. 23.

A graphic showing the United States with a temperature outlook.

The seasonal temperature outlook for this fall.

Screenshot via NOAA

🌡️ Temperature

We know how Florida weather is — think warm. This fall, the Tampa Bay area has a 40-50% chance of temperatures being higher than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. The area has a 33-40% chance of seeing higher than average rainfall amounts this fall.


This month marks the transition from summer to fall, but toastier temperatures may stick around. On average, the high in September for the Tampa Bay area is 86°, and the prediction for higher-than-normal temps this fall mean we probably won’t be bustin’ out the flannels quite yet.


Temperatures start to cool off a bit more in October, with the average low sitting around 69°. The average high for this month is 82°, but gentle breezes typically help us from being too warm.


November is when we really start to see some cooler temps. Historically, highs are in the mid-70°s this month, and rainfall is much lower — plan for clear days that are perfect for throwing on a light jacket, grabbing a coffee, and taking a stroll.

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