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Summer 2024 forecast for Tampa Bay

Prepare for summer weather in TBAY with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

A photo looking up at the tree canopy in Hyde Park Village. Green leaves and brown branches are in all different directions, and sun is shining through from above, where a blue sky sits in the background.

Summer is coming.

Photo by TBAYtoday

We know the question on your mind, Tampa Bay — it’s not getting any hotter, is it? Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for June, July, and August.

While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what summer will bring.

Reminder: The first day of summer is Thursday, June 20.

A screenshot from NOAA. It shows the seasonal temperature outlook for summer across the US in color form, with darker red areas in the west indicating above average temps. The whole Southeast is in the "leaning above" category of orange.

Feelin’ hot hot hot.

Screenshot via NOAA

🌡️ Temperature

What a surprise — it’s going to be hot. This summer, the Tampa Bay area has a 40-50% chance of being warmer than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. TBAY has a 40-50% chance of above average rainfall amounts throughout the summer months.

☀️ Drought

Speaking of rain, no drought conditions are expected throughout the wet summer months.

June’s heat jump

Hurricane season started on Saturday, June 1, and experts say there’s an 85% chance of an above-normal season. Tampa’s average highs for the month are 90.5º, with lows sitting at 75.4º.

Pro tip: June is a great month to get ready for hurricanes with our handy guide, before the worst of the season is expected later in the season.

July’s rainfall rise

The rain has truly arrived by the time July starts, with an average of 7.75 inches falling through the month. Did you know: A huge 9.07 inches is the record rainfall for a single July day in Tampa, falling on the 29th in 1960.

August’s humid hue

A rise in humidity makes August feel even hotter than its average temps of 84.0º. Keep those water bottles filled — the average heat index is 107.6º.

But, trends show that could be higher this year. In 2023, a new record average of 86.9º was set.


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